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An Investigation into the Dynamic Nature of Food Security Using Markov Switching Models

Kodithuwakku. A. N.* and Edirisinghe. J. C.

People are considered to be food secured when they have adequate access to food which helps to maintain their health lives. Food availability, access, utilization and stability are the four main facets of food security. Rather than dropping over time, food insecurity has become a repetitive problem. This research was led to study the state transition behaviors in the four dimensions of global food security (Availability, Access, Utilization and Stability) by creating a two state (Crisis and Success) Markov-switching model. Markov Switching Model is a method applied to explore structural changes of nonlinear time series. In this study Markov Switching Auto Regressive Model was used because the data used were lower frequency data. Secondary data were obtained for five main regions in the world (Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania) and one sub region (South Asia). Results highlighted that growth rate of food availability was high in developing regions than developed. America, Asia, and South Asian regions showed longest time period in crisis state in accessibility to food. Utilization of food in South Asian region was in the crisis state and in European region it was in the success state. Asian region showed the highest stability in other three dimensions of food security. African region has to face a long-lasting food insecurity in all four dimensions. American, Asian, European and South Asian regions have to face food insecurity not critically in terms of food availability, but in the case of access, utilization and stability. Therefore, this study emphasizes that to eradicate food insecurity all four dimensions should be considered and appropriate policies and investments should be made.
KEYWORDS: Food security, Markov switching model, Transition behavior

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